Predicting the Box Office Success of Twilight

The Movie Fanatic   has an article about the pros and cons of Twilight at the box office.

Important Issues Raised: I’ve read both articles carefully and I want to come up with some of the issues raised:
1. Twilight is either a Comic-Con illusion or a box office enigma in the league with Harry Potter;
2. Can a small player like Summit Entertainment produce a studio-style hit? Can a movie franchise be created on modest budgets? [ also see summary below ]
3. Steven Zeitchik listed down some of his analysis: What we found is that for every argument arguing one side of the success of the November 21 release, something bites back on the other side. A few of them:

  • The books are bestsellers. But are they mega-bestsellers, to the point where readers alone can drive ticket sales, like “The Da Vinci Code” did?;
  • Boys won’t go because there’s not enough action. But mothers might — see under: Summit’s marketing to an online contingent called Twilight Moms (a distant cousin to hockey moms);
  • It’s hard for a startup studio like Summit to spend enough to push the box office to tentpole levels. But with a budget in the $40-50 million range, it doesn’t exactly need to outearn “The Dark Knight” to become profitable;
  • There’s precedent for teen-vampire stories to cross over — just look at “Buffy.” But the TV series built an audience over years. “Twilight” will have to pull it off over a couple weekends.

Now, I personally do not agree with all these points, but apparently, neither does TMF. (They actually contradict these points. Ex: The Mom/teenage girl fanbase. What about Twilight Guy?!) You can read the article HERE.

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